League Analysis — Fnatic vs Excel Esports— LEC Week 4
14 FEBRUARY 2021 — by League Analyst
2 teams 2 games
Day two of week 4 in the LEC is coming up today and the boys in orange are playing against Excel. The game was originally planned to play out as the 4th game of the day but was moved to the end of the day due to a failed chronobreak after a bug with Samira and Guardian Angel.
This means both teams will have to reset mentally and refocus for a new game, a tall task after the massive delay caused by the bug. It’ll be a true test for both teams and the support staff will be crucial for all players to be ready when heading back onto the rift.
Draft breakdown
Finished draft shown at the bottom of the breakdown.
Blue Bans:
Ban 1 — Rell
A very strong engage support that has proved to be very reliable in the LEC. Rell currently has an 80% winrate with a 12–3 game record.
Ban 2 — Thresh
Thresh being banned on blue makes a lot of sense since he can come in as 1st or 2nd to be paired with Aphelios or any other hypercarry.
Ban 3 — Azir
This ban is somewhat unexpected as Azir was early picked by Excel in the previous game with the bug. I don’t exactly understand the reasoning for banning it out.
Red Bans:
Ban 1 — Udyr
Perma ban 1 comes in, to be expected on 11.3.
Ban 2 — Olaf
It’s interesting that Olaf is still getting banned despite multiple nerfs. Either the players still value the pick or it’s simply taking some time to adapt to the new patches. We’ll just have to wait and see how the drafts evolve going forward.
Ban 3 — Twisted Fate
Perma ban 2 gone, job well done.
Picks:
B1 Pick — Orianna
So Orianna is first picked instead of Azir. Personally I’m not a big fan of this as Azir is stronger across the board in my opinion. Besides that fact, Orianna is a safe blind that fits with most compositions so the pick is fine in that sense.
R1 Pick — Alistar
Hyli gets one of his signature engage supports in Alistar. It’s safe, reliable and certainly a Fnatic pick.
R2 Pick — Seraphine
Yesterday we got to see the Seraphine go up against the Azir and today it comes in again against the Orianna. The matchup should be very similar with the Seraphine mainly focusing on going even and providing support for the team.
B2 Pick — Kai’Sa
Kai’Sa is still the pick with the highest PB rate in the league with 98% but despite that, her winrate is only about 43%. So even though we are used to see her early in the draft, the numbers aren’t supporting the extreme priority that she has seen so far.
B3 Pick — Gragas
I really like the early Gragas as he is a 3 way flex for top, jungle and support. A strong pick that doesn’t give away much of anything in terms of strategy.
R3 Pick — Samira
It’s not the first time that Upset has shown that he is willing to play the Samira into Kai’Sa matchup and so far it has been very effective for the team. Her early game effectiveness in skirmishes has proven to be very powerful and fitting with the Fnatic playstyle.
Blue bans:
Ban 4 — Renekton
Despite the item nerfs, Renekton receives another ban. Since Excel already has a counterpick in Gragas this ban seems somewhat pointless.
Ban 5 — Malphite
The rock gets banned away, maybe to set up for an Aatrox pick.
Red bans:
Ban 4 — Gangplank
Gangplank is definitely one of the strongest picks available and can offer an insane amount of zone control together with the Orianna. The ban makes a lot of sense.
Ban 5 — Camille
Another powerpick in the toplane banned away.
Picks:
R4 Pick — Lillia
The amount of reliable junglers has been decreasing a lot since the new patch and Lillia is one of the picks that dodged the nerfs. She is also very versatile and can opt into either Moonstone or Liandry’s depending on her role in the game.
B4 Pick — Hecarim
We saw a Hecarim ban yesterday and now we’ll get to see it on the rift. With the nerfs to Goredrinker it’ll be interesting to see which junglers can break back into the pro meta, will Hecarim be one of them?
B5 Pick — Jax
Now this explains the Malphite bans as Jax gets picked up blindly by Excel. With Gangplank also banned away it’ll be interesting what Fnatic responds with. Will they try to match the Jax in the sidelane or opt into a more team focused pick?
R5 Pick — Volibear
The Bwipo special, Volibear. The pick isn’t a counter to Jax but fills a similar role to something like a Malphite. It’s all about the engage and being able to dive into the enemy backline as the tank for the team. I respect the fact that Fnatic doesn’t really care about the Jax and keeps drafting their own preferred style. I would note that Poppy would have been a very savage pick into the Excel draft.
Pre-game prediction
This draft is actually very interesting. The Jax pick was very unexpected and spices up the game a lot. The big problem with the pick is generally the power of the dragons, which forces teams to teamfight early on in the game, something Jax really wants to avoid.
In my mind the pick doesn’t really fit with the rest of the teamcomp, which is looking for explosive combos and skirmishes. With all that in mind, I would place my bets on Fnatic to win this game. Not because their draft is stronger but because it makes more sense as a 5 man unit.
Key moments
If yesterdays game was “top diff” this was the “bot diff” as Upset and Hylissang dominated the 2v2 against Patrik and Tore. With the advantage on the bottom side of the map Fnatic was able to pick up the two first dragons. Come the third, Excel was forced into a rough spot, pretty much having to commit to deny Fnatic from reaching soul point. The fight that erupted was long and insanely even but in the end Fnatic was able to pick up the dragon.
The game was pretty much decided on soul point as Excel fumbled an engage in Fnatic’s blue side jungle, giving Fnatic the infernal soul. Despite Excel trying to fight back on Baron and Elder, Fnatic was to far ahead and closed out after 33 minutes.
Post game takeaways
All things considered, I’m very impressed by Excel’s performance in this game. Fnatic was pushed to their limits and if Selfmade hadn’t clutched the smite fight over the 3rd dragon, this game could have gone either way. For Fnatic, this game showed how volatile their drafts are when faced up against heavy scaling. They were able to snowball it hard enough today, but I still have a hard time feeling at ease at any point during these games.
Despite those feelings it’s important to point out the huge improvement we’ve seen so far in the split. The team no longer goes for absurd engages and they pick their fights very wisely. This also reflects in the analysis we are able to to heading into the games. Fnatic are playing to their winconditions and because of that, predicting the outcome based on draft has been way easier. Judging by the progress showed so far in terms of communication and decision making, things are looking very promising heading into week 5.
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