League Analysis — Fnatic vs Excel Esports — LEC Week 7
6 MARCH 2021 — by League Analyst
We are entering week 7 of the LEC and today we have a middle of the pack matchup between Fnatic and Excel. The two teams are currently sitting at 5th and 6th place respectively, just above the playoffs cutoff.
But despite the fact that the teams are close in the standings, Fnatic should be considered massive favorites going into the game. Excel has not won a single game since week four, meaning that they have lost the last 5 games played. Looking at their gold lead over time, it’s painting quite a dark picture about the teams performances as they tend to fall behind at very early stages in the game and being unable to recover.
Even when the team is ahead at 15 minutes, Excel only has a 33% win rate in the spring split. So going into the game, the team will have to take a turn for the better if they expect to come out on top.
Fnatic on the other hand is looking to extend their lead to the 6th place teams and to find some consistency on the patch that dropped last week. The team has looked a bit shaky in the past two weeks and has to grab a few more wins to secure their spot in the playoffs. Their unrelenting aggression has resulted in some very dominating victories, but also a couple of heavy defeats. Bwipo in particular has made some uncharacteristic mistakes and has not been in complete sync with the rest of the team, so I’ll be looking a bit extra on his performance this weekend.
Draft breakdown
Finished draft shown at the bottom of the breakdown.
Blue Bans:
Ban 1 — Twisted Fate
Permanently banned since week one, Twisted Fate will not show up in this game either. I want to note that I don’t know why the pick is being banned away on blue side when they have first pick.
Ban 2 — Thresh
The classic blue side Thresh ban that we’ve seen so many times before. With more hypercarries creeping back into the meta I wouldn’t be surprised to see continued ban priority on the chain warden due to his lantern.
Ban 3 — Malphite
Malphite is one of the soft counters to Gnar, so I’m assuming that's is the reason for this ban. Don’t know if I agree with it having to be banned away at such an early stage in the draft.
Red Bans:
Ban 1 — Udyr
Udyr is still overtuned and will most likely stay permabanned until the nerfs hit next patch.
Ban 2 — Lillia
Another strong jungler taken of the board. As the bruisers have fallen off one by one, Lillia has risen in priority since she has such a diverse kit allowing her to poke, engage and clear better than most of the other junglers.
Ban 3 — Seraphine
The premium enchanter is banned away. Since she is so flexible I like the early denial as it makes the draft easier to navigate going forward.
Picks:
B1 Pick — Azir
With Seraphine banned away I really like the blind Azir. He is the most reliable mage available in almost all aspects of the game.
R1 Pick — Senna
This is the first time we’ll get to see Upset on Senna this year. The pick has tons of upsides; sustain, global presence, crowd control and scaling. The notable weakness is her low mobility, making her vulnerable to hard engage.
R2 Pick — Tahm Kench
Whilst being a classic support to pair with Senna I strongly disagree with the blind Kench here. There are an insane amounts of hard counters that can shut the pick down, both in the ADC and support role.
B2 Pick — Hecarim
Hecarim is another pick that I am very much against. With Fnatic showing the early Senna/Kench I’d much rather see something like a Kindred or even a Karthus.
B3 Pick — Gnar
This pick is something that I’ve looked very close at during the week as the other major regions has played. The clear conclusion is the the Gnar can’t be blind picked, and Jayce is the main reason for that. The pick currently has an 83% winrate in the LPL and dominates the Gnar matchup in the laning phase, making the game very hard to play out as the Gnar.
R3 Pick — Graves
Graves is as we all know a jack of all trades. He is also very self sufficient in game and can maneuver himself in most teamcompositions. It’s not a pick that defines the draft in any shape or form but it is a fine pick nonetheless.
Blue bans:
Ban 4 — Sion
Sion ban with Gnar picked? I don’t know about this one chief. Gnar has always been considered one of the best tank busters so this seems like a pretty troll ban to me. Should be a Jayce or Gangplank ban 100%.
Ban 5 — Orianna
Orianna is a very uninteresting ban as one of many mages available.
Red bans:
Ban 4 — Rell
With Hecarim already drafted I think the Rell ban is somewhat necessary to not get absolutely run over in teamfights. It is also a very good matchup into the Tahm Kench, hence the ban.
Ban 5 — Caitlyn
Caitlyn is also one of many Tahm Kench counters, being able to poke him out in lane. This is exactly why I didn’t like the Tahm pick, it requires so many bans and there are still a crazy amount of viable counters available.
Picks:
R4 Pick — Zoe
Zoe is very much a Nisqy classic and also a pick that can outrange the Azir whilst matching his pushing power in lane. With so little engage on the team it is also a very important tool to zone and poke enemies.
B4 Pick — Ashe
I would have liked to see Jinx here but Ashe is certainly a viable pick in this position. She provides a lot of poke in lane and obviously has pick potential with the arrow.
B5 Pick — Lulu
Lulu, Zyra, Karma, Soraka, literally any ranged support is good here. Personally I would prefer something more damage oriented, Miss Fortune or possibly a Malzahar would have been interesting in this spot.
R5 Pick — Gangplank
It’s not a Jayce but we definitely take this as well. Gangplank has a fine lane vs the Gnar and is also a huge counter to the Ashe and Lulu. It is a fantastic pick in this position.
Pre-game prediction
In terms of draft I would favor Fnatic for this game. Two good solo lane matchups paired up with the Graves and a supportive botlane. It has the tools to set them up for success. Despite a rough matchup in the botlane I find it difficult to see how XL is going to deal with the zoning coming out from Gangplank and Zoe.
Key moments
For the first time in quite a while we got a somewhat slow Fnatic game. Since the team lacked the engage necessary to force plays on the map, we instead got to see a more reactionary team that focused on punishing mistakes and catching people out of position. In the two game deciding teamfights of the game, around 17 and 23 minutes in respectively, Excel was the team that was forcing the issue.
Both times, Fnatic was able to kite back, sustain and find the perfect time to reengage and turn the fight in their favor. 26 minutes in, Excel committed to a base race in a desperate attempt to get something going for them. But a clutch Gangplank and Senna ultimate was able to stall enough for Fnatic to be able to finish the game.
Post game takeaways
I honestly don’t have much to say about today’s game. The only thing on my mind is how annoyed I am that a team can get away with blinding Tahm Kench in 2021. He is such a disgustingly bad blind pick and it astonishes me that teams aren’t able to find the counters to beat him.
Besides that little detail, it was a solid win for the boys. Despite having to show a different style to what we are used to seeing, Fnatic executed well and showed a lot of patience in the later parts of the game. Their timing was very impressive and it seemed like the team was on the same page when moving around the map.
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